US Recession Risk 'Uncomfortably High' at 48%, Moody's Economist Warns
Chief Economist Mark Zandi cites a weakening job market and sluggish consumer spending as key risks to the US economy over the next 12 months.
The U.S. economy is facing an 'uncomfortably high' 48% probability of entering a recession within the next 12 months, according to a stark warning from Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi. This forecast places the economy perilously close to a downturn, based on the firm's leading economic indicators.
Zandi's analysis points to several mounting headwinds threatening economic stability. The primary concern is a significant slowdown in the labor market, which has seen hiring come to a 'virtual standstill.' , more than half of all U.S. industries are now shedding jobs, a trend he describes as a 'jobs recession.'
Compounding the labor market softness are signs of consumer fatigue. has registered its weakest growth since the 2008 financial crisis, removing a critical pillar of support for the economy. Zandi also highlighted external pressures, including rising U.S. tariffs that erode corporate profits and restrictive immigration policies that have stalled labor force growth. The combination of these factors paints a precarious picture, with either already in a recession or at high risk of tipping into one.